I am not a Bitcoin or crypto person, but I get way, way too into mysteries. I have spent way too much time in my life reading theories about who Banksy or Satoshi Nakamoto are, or googling to find photos of Daft Punk or Buckethead without masks, things like that.
Whenever I look up Satoshi Nakamoto theories, I will read a bunch of facts about one possibility, and think that they are clearly Satoshi, but then I'll read about someone else and think they they are. I've meant for ages to do an actual Bayesian breakdown of my thoughts on this, so I'm doing that here, finally.
This is a work in progress, and it's absolutely just my thoughts on it. If you want to plug in your own weights to the various pieces of evidence, there is an edit mode you can enable by clicking here. This will put you into EDIT MODE, where you can click on any weight or prior and change it, and the final calculation at the bottom of the page will update automatically.
Jamie Hewlett
Prior:
Co-creator of Gorillaz and Tank Girl, Hewlett is an established artist with connections to the Bristol music and art scene. Some have suggested his artistic style and cultural connections make him a candidate.
| Evidence | My Thoughts | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Established career that predates and runs concurrent with Banksy's emergence | This actually works against the theory - Hewlett was already famous and busy with major projects. Why risk that reputation? | |
| Artistic skills and style could potentially match some Banksy works | While Hewlett is talented, his known style is quite different from Banksy's stencil-based approach. The techniques and aesthetics don't align well. | |
| Connections to Bristol music scene and countercultural movements | Relevant background, but many artists share these connections. Not uniquely identifying. |
Robert Del Naja (3D from Massive Attack)
Prior:
Member of the influential Bristol trip-hop group Massive Attack and a graffiti artist in his own right. Del Naja has been suggested as a candidate due to his artistic background and Bristol connections.
| Evidence | My Thoughts | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Original member of Bristol graffiti crew "The Wild Bunch" in the 1980s | Strong evidence - he has documented history in exactly the right scene and time period where Banksy would have developed. | |
| Banksy artworks have appeared in cities where Massive Attack was touring | Compelling pattern, though could be coincidental. The timing correlations would need deeper analysis to be conclusive. | |
| Known to use stencils in his own artistic work | Directly relevant skill set. Shows he has the technical ability and familiarity with Banksy's primary medium. | |
| Has collaborated with Banksy on Massive Attack album artwork | Could indicate they're the same person, or could just be professional collaboration. The nature of this relationship needs more investigation. | |
| Age and timeline fit with Banksy's career emergence | Born 1965, which would make him slightly older than most estimates for Banksy, but still within reasonable range. |
Robin Gunningham
Prior:
A Bristol-born artist and former public schoolboy who attended Bristol Cathedral School. Gunningham was identified by journalist Claudia Joseph in 2008 as a potential candidate based on geographic and timeline analysis.
| Evidence | My Thoughts | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Geographic analysis by Queen Mary University researchers showing correlation between Gunningham's known locations and Banksy artwork appearances | This is compelling statistical evidence, though geographic correlation alone doesn't prove identity. The methodology appears sound but could have alternative explanations. | |
| Attended Bristol Cathedral School, same area where Banksy's early work appeared | Significant because it places him in the right location during Banksy's formative period. However, many artists emerged from Bristol's scene. | |
| Birth year (1973) aligns with estimated age of Banksy based on career timeline | Reasonable circumstantial evidence, though the age estimates for Banksy have varied over time and aren't definitive. | |
| Has never publicly denied being Banksy despite widespread speculation | Interesting, but silence could be strategic for privacy regardless of whether he's Banksy. Many people don't respond to speculation about them. |
My Little Bayesian Assessment
Based on the evidence weights and applying Bayesian reasoning (starting with equal prior probabilities), here are the calculated probabilities for each candidate being Satoshi Nakamoto according to me only: